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Early Brinksmanship Shines Fresh Light on Debt Limit
January 11, 2023
House Republicans and Senate Democrats emerged from the November 2022 elections with very slim majorities, posing meaningful challenges over the next two years. The early intra-party tussle...
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4Q Market Commentary 2021
February 3, 2022
Risk assets recovered from Omicron fears and Fed pivot away from accommodative policy to close the year near record high price levels. The Federal Reserve continues along its path away from...
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Unprecedented Front-End Repricing Creates Opportunities
February 2, 2022
The Fed has clearly pivoted hawkish coming into 2022. Fed fund futures are now pricing in nearly five rate hikes compared to just one hike priced in at the end of 3Q21.
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2Q21 Market Commentary
August 5, 2021
Risk assets pushed to new highs as economic growth accelerated and earnings expectations rose. Most pandemic restrictions have been lifted leading to a broad, fast-paced reopening straining portions of the economy.
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Tightening Taken with a Big Grain of Salt
June 22, 2021
The dot plot for the June FOMC meeting was unexpectedly hawkish as Fed officials, at the median, forecasted two rate hikes by the end of 2023. This was in contrast to the prior March reading that anticipated...
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1Q21 Market Commentary
March 21, 2021
The January Georgia runoff election gave the Democratic Party a one-vote advantage in the Senate and the Biden Administration wasted no time pushing through a new round of massive fiscal spending.
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4Q Market Commentary
January 26, 2021
Risk assets rallied to new highs as 2020 came to a close. Expectations of further fiscal stimulus and optimism that vaccines will curb the economic impact of the pandemic buoyed market sentiment.
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Looking Beyond the Current Surge in Infections
November 18, 2020
1-5 year corporate credit is on track to achieve a consecutive year of strong total return. Based on the Bloomberg Barclays Investment Grade 1-5 Year U.S. Corporate Bond Index as of October 31, 2020...
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3Q Market Commentary
October 29, 2020
Fixed income markets largely treaded water over the quarter as states reopened and isolated surges were watched with trepidation while equity markets pushed ever higher as economic data demonstrated the resilience of the domestic economy.
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Incorporating ESG Factors into Our Investment Framework
September 1, 2020
A central tenant in fixed income investing is risk minimization; therefore, an analysis of ESG issues is paramount to fully embracing the practice of prudence
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2Q20 Market Commentary
July 21, 2020
Markets continued to rally over the quarter as expansive monetary policy and fiscal stimulus offset the economic distress brought on by coronavirus
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ZIRP Returns! – Extend Duration in Short Corporate Bond Portfolios
June 12, 2020
Following the June FOMC meeting, the Fed released its first summary of economic projections (“SEP”) incorporating impacts from the Covid-19 pandemic.
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Don’t Fight the Fed
April 27, 2020
Price action in investment grade corporate credit during the month of March was historic.
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Negative Real Yields and Buoyant Equities Send Mixed Signals
February 20, 2020
Relative to Covid-19, a possible Middle East conflict with Iran at the beginning of the year was met with little...
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January Monthly Market Commentary
January 25, 2020
The coronavirus outbreak in China shook markets mid-January. Markets entered 2020 on an optimistic note following the Phase 1 trade...
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December Monthly Market Commentary
January 24, 2020
Trade news primarily drove market sentiment as 2019 came to a close. Progress towards a “Phase 1” trade agreement with...
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Diversifying Exposure Away From Corporate Credit on Relative Value
January 16, 2020
The aggregate U.S. corporate index had a historic year in 2019 achieving 14.3% in total return which was only bested...
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Underweight Food and Beverage Credit
December 19, 2019
This comes after a year of extremely negative returns of -4.45% compared to -2.81% for index eligible industrials with spread...
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November Monthly Market Commentary
December 11, 2019
The U.S. and China continued to make progress towards a “Phase 1” trade agreement. Most developed economy central banks, including...
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Retail Sales
November 20, 2019
While prospective data for manufacturing activity appear to have bottomed out in August and September according to readings from purchasing...
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Repo Stress
September 20, 2019
The rate on overnight repo surged on Monday, 9/16 and remained elevated through the week causing the federal funds rate...
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Tame Inflation Affords Fed Room to Cut in September
August 15, 2019
Weakening sentiment as evidenced by global central banks’ dovish and the recent inversion in the 2s10s curve is likely to...
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Goldilocks
July 1, 2019
The 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 2.60% early in the quarter before plunging to 2.01% at the end of June.
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A Transition from LIBOR
June 26, 2019
Due largely to recent LIBOR manipulation scandals, regulators in the US are set to phase LIBOR out by the end...
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Consumer ABS
June 13, 2019
Unlike senior unsecured corporate bonds, ABS transactions are structured so senior tranches are able to maintain AAA ratings even if...
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Credit Cycle Rolls On
May 15, 2019
The Fed’s positioning still leaves room for a pivot back to hawkish, but the window may have already closed for...
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That’s All Folks
April 1, 2019
Domestically, the Federal Reserve’s 180-degree policy pivot, a pause in rate hikes and possible adjustments to balance sheet rundown prior...
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Rosy Markets
February 14, 2019
Sentiment for risks assets has vastly improved as fear of a recession induced by monetary policy missteps eased considerably with...
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All About the Expectations
January 18, 2019
More recently, statements from Fed officials and minutes from the December FOMC meeting have firmly anchored dovish expectations at least...
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Volpocalypse Redux
January 1, 2019
This reaction coupled with data indicating slowing global growth, impending Brexit politics, trade wars, and domestic government strife amplified risk...
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A Cautious Fed in the Year of the Pig
December 10, 2018
The persistent lingering of geopolitical issues that have seemingly reached maximum escalation only find new ways to further intensify driving...
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Rising Short Interest in High-Yield ETFs
November 11, 2018
Year-to-date, lower quality issuers have driven outperformance in the sector with excess returns of +2.6% for Single-B and +4.3% for...
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Evolution of Firm Value Highlights ESG Issues
November 5, 2018
This increase not only includes technology firms whose values comprise the application of algorithms, but also firms that have paid...
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Onward and Upward
October 1, 2018
Over the quarter, the yield curve bear flattened as frontend yields rose 25-30 basis points while longer maturities rose 20-25...
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Monetary Mayhem and Geopolitics
July 1, 2018
The European Central Bank (ECB) presented a fairly dovish outlook while the Federal Reserve (Fed) increased rates by 25 bps...
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Trade Talk Tantrum
April 1, 2018
Economic activity lost some momentum from the fourth quarter, but remained healthy.
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Off and Running
January 1, 2018
Further, Fed officials are forecasting three hikes in 2018 matching the 2017 pace.
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Conventional Policy for Unconventional Times
October 1, 2017
However, Fed officials opined that lower inflation was transitory and did not warrant deviations from policy forecasts jolting market expectations.
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Prime Time
October 1, 2016
Investment grade credit traded in a fairly narrow band finishing the quarter almost unchanged.
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Much Ado about Nothing
July 1, 2016
The brief rout reversed on expectations of further easing by global central banks – a common elixir to economic malaise...
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Employment, Price and Global Market Stability?
April 1, 2016
Credit spreads soared, especially for commodity related sectors.
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R.I.P. Z.I.R.P.
January 1, 2016
Commodity prices continued to come under pressure as well with oil declining 30% on the year.
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Lower for Longer
October 1, 2015
Energy and metals/mining sectors are stressed especially in the high yield space.
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Are we there yet?
July 1, 2015
The yield curve bear steepened (see Figure 1) as two-year Treasury yields increased 9bps while the thirty-year Treasury yield increased...
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The Waiting Game
April 1, 2015
Risk assets delivered uneven results and U.S. Treasury yields were volatile as well (see Figure 1). On the quarter, performance...
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Lost in Translation
January 1, 2015
The New Year is an opportune time to ensure your policy and investment choices are equipped to take advantage of...
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The Home Stretch
October 1, 2014
In this quarter’s commentary we will examine the Fed’s exit policy and its effect on markets as well as providing...
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New Challenges
July 1, 2014
In this commentary, we’ll examine the current regulatory environment for money funds while providing an update on the state of...
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Rationalize Your Liquidity Premium
April 14, 2014
Many will read the title above and feel the way some do when talking with a mechanic about what might...
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Changing of the Guard
April 1, 2014
In this commentary, we outline what is next for the Federal Reserve, discuss the upcoming earnings season, and briefly revisit...
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The Year of the Taper
January 1, 2014
Meanwhile, central bank policy will continue to have a significant impact as the Fed carefully exits its high-octane policy.
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Brokers vs. Registered Investment Advisors
October 4, 2013
Why would someone choose to pay an explicit fee to a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) when they could simply use...
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Taper, Taper, Toil and Trouble
October 1, 2013
The odds of a technical default are rising, but it is still a very low probability event in our estimation.
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Talk Centers of Fed Tapering
July 1, 2013
While the market volatility post-announcement seemed a bit overdone in our view, investors should take notice: the FOMC’s recent statement...
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The Specter of Higher Yields
May 1, 2013
In this month’s commentary, we will look at historical rising rate environments, consider portfolio implications and discuss what the future...
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Volatility Awakens
April 1, 2013
If so, we would view wider credit spreads as an opportunity to selectively add risk rather than avoid it.
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Quantitative Easing is a Market’s Best Friend
March 1, 2013
Like diamonds, QE incites joyous reactions from its respective benefactors and carries the perception, right or wrong, of lasting forever.
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The Great Rotation
February 1, 2013
With the threat of rising longtern yields, analysts fear this may spell impending doom for the bond market; but should...
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A Call to Action
January 1, 2013
The dawn of a New Year coupled with the expiration of the muchutilized FDIC Transaction Account Guarantee (TAG) Program and...
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Making a List and Checking it Twice
December 1, 2012
Evaluating these list items now will provide professionals with the flexibility to design the best response for potential adverse outcomes....
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Change You Can Believe In
November 1, 2012
Both events will add risk to assets that previously had little to none, and should motivate investors to seek prudent...
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The Convexity of Credit Revisted
October 1, 2012
While developed markets abroad have experienced exceptional volatility in 2012, this volatility has neither derailed the impressive performance of U.S....
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The Summer of Our Discontent
September 1, 2012
With that in mind we’ll discuss a couple of major developments in the short-maturity fixed income space: GSE support and...
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Waning Interest
August 1, 2012
By contrast, interest rates in “peripheral” countries remain volatile and on a general upward trajectory as eurozone policymakers struggle to...
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United We Stand, Divided We Fall
July 1, 2012
While we will reserve judgment on the recent policy actions until additional details emerge, we anticipate further consolidation of monetary,...
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Money Market Reform
June 1, 2012
As such, corporate practitioners should begin to formulate a plan to respond to potential changes that could potentially affect their...
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Money in the Bank
May 1, 2012
As the markets struggle to digest the European Union’s plight alongside renewed concerns about bank capital levels globally, investors should...
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The Convexity of Credit
April 1, 2012
As in past periods of potential interest rate volatility, we recommend that investors remain duration neutral and opportunistic of sudden...
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Credit Check
March 1, 2012
As these downgrades will most likely occur before summer arrives, we shall examine the potential unexpected credit exposure a cash...
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The Diffusion of Innovation
February 1, 2012
Further evaluation of the Diffusion of Innovation theory is relevant today in demonstrating how short-duration investors have adapted and, in...
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Happy “New Normal” Year
January 1, 2012
We continue to face a challenging investment environment as front-end supply diminishes, rates remain low, highly-rated credit remains suspect and...
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Money Market Blues
December 1, 2011
Money markets investors are operating in a dangerous environment full of overpriced, risky assets.
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Jumping Over Dollars For Dimes
November 1, 2011
A defensive credit overweight will allow investors to navigate future volatility as the European debt crisis continues to unfold in...
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Pushing on a String
October 1, 2011
Consequently, as economic growth proves anemic, unemployment remains stubbornly high and inflation is contained within the Fed’s acceptable range, we...
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A Renewed Case for Extension
September 1, 2011
Our answer to this question, particularly, whether or not investors should extend the durations of their ultra-short liquidity pools, was...
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Deficits, Defaults, and Downgrades
August 1, 2011
The markets were volatile in the days surrounding the events of the S&P downgrades, additional support measures in Europe, and...
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Cruel Summer
July 1, 2011
Rather than fighting against summer headwinds by remaining invested in risky credits (i.e., prime money funds, bank deposits and direct...
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House of Cards
June 1, 2011
Investors will most certainly discover that the risks and problems lurking deep in the shadows of their fund holdings are...
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Where the Sidewalk Ends
May 1, 2011
As Congressional leaders begin the heated battle to reconcile long-term structural imbalances, both parties agree that the resolution of the...
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Is This Time Different?
April 1, 2011
We ask the question: Is this most recent rise in interest rates different than previous interest rate shocks we have...
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Social Unrest
March 1, 2011
These factors will strengthen the FOMC’s stance of keeping interest rates low for an “extended period” despite inflationary headwinds as...
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The Sorry State of the States
February 1, 2011
With taxpayers subjected to low income growth and elevated unemployment, state leaders have little option but to focus their deficit-reduction...
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Review and Outlook
January 1, 2011
We therefore look to the labor market as an indicator of future FOMC actions and of the likelihood of sustainable...
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Fall of the Titans
December 1, 2010
We encourage investors to review banking relationships, bank deposits, direct security and prime money market holdings for exposure to troubled...
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Mortgages Make Another Mess
November 1, 2010
A deeper dive into the mortgage market and the status of key players will help to clarify the issues.
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Extend Now
October 1, 2010
Failing to adjust to the current reality in the money markets will lead to painfully low returns on investment portfolios...
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The Great Uncertainty
September 1, 2010
The largest hurdle to a sustained economic recovery appears to be the pervasive uncertainty that has entrenched market participants. Removing...
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Unusually Uncertain
August 1, 2010
With short interest rates likely to remain range-bound at these low levels for the next 12-18 months, we recommend that...
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When More Means Less
July 1, 2010
This is a cause for concern, and investors should be wary of industries and companies in which the government and...
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Hell Hath No Fury Like SEC Scorned
May 1, 2010
We maintain an underweight view in the financial sector and see severe challenges to the industry going forward.
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The People United Will Leave the Banks Divided
April 1, 2010
In an extension of last month’s market commentary, we reemphasize the need for investors to monitor potential credit risks closely...
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Dr. Bernanke’s Dreaded Prescription
March 1, 2010
We do not anticipate the Fed raising rates until Q4 2010 at the earliest, and see high probability that action...
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One of these Votes is Not Like the Others
February 1, 2010
The debate will intensify into 2010 over whether Governor Hoenig’s vote is a sign of changing sentiment at the Fed...
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Economic Remodel
January 1, 2010
We welcome the effects of intervention to stabilize the financial system, but we remain concerned about the lingering effects of...
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How Money Markets Fail
September 26, 2008
As the credit crunch rippled into nearly every instrument in the debt market, investors wondered how purportedly “safe” securities (so...
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Investment Accounting Consideration
June 6, 2008
In February 2005, PriceWaterhouseCoopers announced that they would no longer qualify auction rate securities as cash equivalents on the balance...
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Centralized Trust and Customer Relationships
June 6, 2008
Few people do without automobile insurance even though annual policy premiums can easily run into the thousands of dollars....
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Securities Lending
June 6, 2008
In today’s capital markets, investors with large portfolios always seek opportunities to maximize liquidity and return while preserving principal value...
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Internal Investment Manager or External – Or Both
June 6, 2008
Organizations frequently explore the question of how to maximize the return on their investment portfolio by debating the benefits or...
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